Predicting the Next Big Impact: Modelling the Rate of Massive Meteorite Strikes

dc.contributor.authorWoods, Ethan
dc.contributor.authorHan, David
dc.date.accessioned2021-02-08T02:44:38Z
dc.date.available2021-02-08T02:44:38Z
dc.date.issued2020-12
dc.description.abstractMeteorites are solid pieces of debris from an astronomical object such as a comet, asteroid, or meteoroid that originates in outer space and survives its passage through the atmosphere to reach the surface of a planet. Although rare, a collision between massive astronomical objects, known as an impact event, can have measurable effects, and physical and biospheric consequences. In this work, we investigate the distributional trend of heavy meteorites that strike the earth and determine if any probability distributions can serve as effective predictive models. NASA meteorite data from 1980 to 2012 were imported into R after pre-processing. Pre-processing activities involved the following: removal of missing data, irrelevant features to meteorite mass or the year of meteorite impact. Statistical analysis was then restricted to meteorites at or above the 98th percentile of mass. It was found that while the distribution of mass for all meteorites is lognormal, the distribution for the top 2% is severely right-skewed, indicating that an extreme-value distribution could be used to model them. Furthermore, the rate of impact for these massive meteorites can be modelled with a zero-inflated negative binomial distribution.en_US
dc.description.departmentManagement Science and Statisticsen_US
dc.description.departmentManagement Science and Statisticsen_US
dc.identifier.issn2470-3958
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12588/253
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherUTSA Office of Undergraduate Researchen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesThe UTSA Journal of Undergraduate Research and Scholarly Work;Volume 7
dc.subjectundergraduate student worksen_US
dc.subjectextreme-value distributionen_US
dc.subjectlognormal distributionen_US
dc.subjectNASA meteorites dataen_US
dc.subjectskewnessen_US
dc.subjectzero-inflated negative binomial distributionen_US
dc.titlePredicting the Next Big Impact: Modelling the Rate of Massive Meteorite Strikesen_US
dc.typePosteren_US

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