Seasonal to Interannual Variability of Satellite-Based Precipitation Estimates in the Pacific Ocean Associated with ENSO from 1998 to 2014
Based on a widely used satellite precipitation product (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B43), we analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over the Pacific Ocean for 1998–2014 at seasonal and interannual timescales, separately, using the conventional empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and investigated the seasonal patterns associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles using season-reliant empirical orthogonal function (SEOF) analysis. Lagged correlation analysis was also applied to derive the lead/lag correlations of the first two SEOF modes for precipitation with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and two types of El Niño, i.e., central Pacific (CP) El Niño and eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño. We found that: (1) The first two seasonal EOF modes for precipitation represent the annual cycle of precipitation variations for the Pacific Ocean and the first interannual EOF mode shows the spatiotemporal variability associated with ENSO; (2) The first SEOF mode for precipitation is simultaneously associated with the development of El Niño and most likely coincides with CP El Niño. The second SEOF mode lagged behind ENSO by one year and is associated with post-El Niño years. PDO modulates precipitation variability significantly only when ENSO occurs by strengthening and prolonging the impacts of ENSO; (3) Seasonally evolving patterns of the first two SEOF modes represent the consecutive precipitation patterns associated with the entire development of EP El Niño and the following recovery year. The most significant variation occurs over the tropical Pacific, especially in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ); (4) Dry conditions in the western basin of the warm pool and wet conditions along the ITCZ and SPCZ bands during the mature phase of El Niño are associated with warm sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific, and a subtropical anticyclone dominating over the northwestern Pacific. These findings may be useful for prediction of seasonal precipitation anomalies over the Pacific Ocean during El Niño years and recovery years.