Stochastic SIR-based Examination of the Policy Effects on the COVID-19 Spread in the U.S. States

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dc.contributor.authorSong, Mina
dc.contributor.authorBelle, Macy K.
dc.contributor.authorMedlovitz, Aaron
dc.contributor.authorHan, David
dc.date.accessioned2021-02-08T02:37:15Z
dc.date.available2021-02-08T02:37:15Z
dc.date.issued2020-12
dc.description.abstractSince the global outbreak of the novel COVID-19, many research groups have studied the epidemiology of the virus for short-term forecasts and to formulate the effective disease containment and mitigation strategies. The major challenge lies in the proper assessment of epidemiological parameters over time and of how they are modulated by the effect of any publicly announced interventions. Here we attempt to examine and quantify the effects of various (legal) policies/orders in place to mandate social distancing and to flatten the curve in each of the U.S. states. Through Bayesian inference on the stochastic SIR models of the virus spread, the effectiveness of each policy on reducing the magnitude of the growth rate of new infections is investigated statistically. This will inform the public and policymakers, and help them understand the most effective actions to fight against the current and future pandemics. It will aid the policy-makers to respond more rapidly (select, tighten, and/or loosen appropriate measures) to stop/mitigate the pandemic early on.en_US
dc.description.departmentManagement Science and Statisticsen_US
dc.identifier.issn2470-3958
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12588/252
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherUTSA Office of Undergraduate Researchen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesThe UTSA Journal of Undergraduate Research and Scholarly Work;Volume 7
dc.subjectundergraduate student worksen_US
dc.subjectBayesian inferenceen_US
dc.subjectCOVID-19en_US
dc.subjectpandemicsen_US
dc.subjectviral epidemiologyen_US
dc.subjectintervention analysesen_US
dc.subjectmitigation strategiesen_US
dc.subjectSIR compartmental modelsen_US
dc.titleStochastic SIR-based Examination of the Policy Effects on the COVID-19 Spread in the U.S. Statesen_US
dc.typePosteren_US

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