Minimizing the Discrepancy between Simulated and Historical Failures in Turbine Engines: A Simulation-Based Optimization Method

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dc.contributor.authorKibria, Ahmed
dc.contributor.authorCastillo-Villar, Krystel K.
dc.contributor.authorMillwater, Harry
dc.date.accessioned2023-05-23T19:19:52Z
dc.date.available2023-05-23T19:19:52Z
dc.date.issued2015-05-18
dc.description.abstractThe reliability modeling of a module in a turbine engine requires knowledge of its failure rate, which can be estimated by identifying statistical distributions describing the percentage of failure per component within the turbine module. The correct definition of the failure statistical behavior per component is highly dependent on the engineer skills and may present significant discrepancies with respect to the historical data. There is no formal methodology to approach this problem and a large number of labor hours are spent trying to reduce the discrepancy by manually adjusting the distribution’s parameters. This paper addresses this problem and provides a simulation-based optimization method for the minimization of the discrepancy between the simulated and the historical percentage of failures for turbine engine components. The proposed methodology optimizes the parameter values of the component’s failure statistical distributions within the component’s likelihood confidence bounds. A complete testing of the proposed method is performed on a turbine engine case study. The method can be considered as a decision-making tool for maintenance, repair, and overhaul companies and will potentially reduce the cost of labor associated to finding the appropriate value of the distribution parameters for each component/failure mode in the model and increase the accuracy in the prediction of the mean time to failures (MTTF).en_US
dc.description.departmentMechanical Engineeringen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipAir Force Research Laboratory through General Dynamics Information Technologyen_US
dc.identifier.citationAhmed Kibria, Krystel K. Castillo-Villar, Harry Millwater, "Minimizing the Discrepancy between Simulated and Historical Failures in Turbine Engines: A Simulation-Based Optimization Method", Mathematical Problems in Engineering, vol. 2015, Article ID 813565, 11 pages, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/813565en_US
dc.identifier.issn1563-5147
dc.identifier.otherhttps://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/813565
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12588/1854
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherHindawien_US
dc.rightsAttribution 3.0 United States*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/us/*
dc.titleMinimizing the Discrepancy between Simulated and Historical Failures in Turbine Engines: A Simulation-Based Optimization Methoden_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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