How and when Do Civil Wars End?: An Analysis of the Impact of External Intervention on Civil War Outcome and Duration
Civil wars end in victory to one side or in negotiated settlements. As for duration, some civil wars end in a short time, some drag on for years. The central determent of civil war outcome and duration is contentious. In this thesis, I argue that external intervention by regional or international powers has the fundamental impact on civil war outcome and duration. I use mixed methods to challenge my argument. Particularly, I utilize statistical model and case studies of Second Sudanese civil war of 1983 and Yemen civil war of 1994 to test my hypotheses. Results show support to my argument. Civil wars which experience external intervention are more likely to reach a negotiated settlement in extended duration, while civil wars which do not experience intervention are more likely to end in a victory to one side in a shorter time.
Keywords: civil war, civil war termination, external intervention, conflict resolution, Sudan, Yemen, balanced intervention.