Spatially oriented demographic determinants of foreclosures in Bexar County

Garza, John
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This dissertation evaluates both demographic and financial variables to explain the variation of the foreclosure rate in Bexar County, Texas, between 2007 and 2011 using public records of foreclosure combined with Census ACS 5-year estimates. This study estimates tract-level effects in an attempt to find evidence that the Options Theory applies within this context and evaluate demographic determinants of foreclosures in the county. Spatial lag models were used in a multivariate analysis of aggregate-level demographic and financial variables to establish that a spatial dependence of foreclosure rates exists between neighboring tracts. The study finds that the aggregate-level tract variables: LTV, percent Hispanic, and percent black were all positively related to the tract foreclosure rates, while holding tract-level measures of: income, home values, percent renter-occupied homes, and price per square foot constant. For every 5% increase in tract LTV there was a 1.2% increase in the tract foreclosure rate. For every 5% increase in the tract percentage of Hispanics or blacks there was a 0.4% and 0.8% increase in tract foreclosure rate, respectively.

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Demographic, Foreclosure, Loan-to-value, LTV, Spatial